After week of waiting, NBA picture may be changing

Basketball Betting Lines

07/06/2010 -

MIAMI (AP) -After a week, there are now real signs that the NBA's waiting game might soon be ending.

LeBron James has reportedly blinked.

Now Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh almost certainly are near the end of their free-agent roads as well.

ESPN's Chris Broussard, citing anonymous ``independent sources,'' reported Tuesday night that James will announce his future NBA plans during a one-hour special on the network at 9 p.m. Thursday, with proceeds from ad revenue going to charity. Broussard said James' ``representatives'' contacted ESPN and asked for the unusual arrangement, which neither the network nor the two-time MVP's circle would confirm.

Still, that was the clearest indicator yet that what might go down as the most celebrated free-agent period in the history of sports - built entirely around the incessant speculation about James, Wade and Bosh - is nearing a dramatic end.

``It's either going to happen quickly,'' Bosh told The Associated Press on the eve of free agency, ``or it's not.''

It hasn't happened quickly.

But now that James has apparently circled a date on his calendar, things would figure to start moving that way. That would be fantastic news, not only for the team or teams that land the members of the NBA's juggernaut trio, but the 150 or so other free agents who are essentially hostages in this tete-a-tete between stars and suitors.

``I think, obviously, we know who the guys are who are the biggest free agents,'' said guard Chris Quinn, who ended last season with New Jersey before hitting the open market. ``A lot depends on what they do. There's a lot of other players who are free agents who are looking for jobs and working hard and want to get on a good team and win.''

Through Tuesday night, only one so-called marquee guy had picked a new team, Amare Stoudemire leaving Phoenix for the Knicks.

Even something like that didn't register a giant blip across the NBA.

Instead, the waiting game reigned. And by the time James' news broke Tuesday night, Stoudemire almost seemed like ancient history.

``Getting closer,'' is the cryptic message on James' website.

Unless it's the Heat, Cavaliers, Bulls, Knicks, Nets or Raptors, there seems to be almost a sense of ennui across the rest of the league when it comes to the sweepstakes involving James, Bosh and Wade.

It's certainly an unusual time: One corner of the league is waiting to see what the Big 3 will do, and the rest are just trying to improve their own teams.

``It's been going on for a year, guys,'' Orlando Magic general manager Otis Smith said. ``It's kind of hard for me to pay attention this week.''

Kind of hard for many teams not to, either.

``I'm tired of hearing about all that, to be honest with you,'' New Orleans Hornets coach Monty Williams said. ``It's overblown, and we've been talking about it for two years.''

Monty, the end could be near.

Bosh said just before the July 1 start of freeagentmania that he was eager to get the process over with, even indicating that he could reveal his decision before Wade or James announced theirs. Which, now, almost makes sense, in that both Wade and James would like to have Bosh alongside them for years to come in Cleveland, Miami or some other NBA city.

His decision clearly affects both, which even the casual NBA observer surely has realized in recent days.

If Bosh picks Miami, it would immediately ensure that Wade takes the Heat offer of a six-year deal that could be worth around $127 million. If Bosh decides he wants to go to Cleveland and play with James, that might send Wade looking to play in Chicago. If Bosh picks a wild-card city - say Houston - both James and Wade would start recruiting someone else to team with, possibly each other.

And then there's the chance that they all could play together, a scenario that almost certainly could only happen in Miami.

``This summer,'' Wade said back in April, ``is about sharing.''

Sharing the spotlight, perhaps?

Agent Henry Thomas, who represents both Bosh and Wade, says his clients are ``getting closer'' - the exact wording James has on his website.

``We are all becoming weary!'' Thomas wrote in an e-mail to The AP.

Wade didn't make any statements about free agency when he appeared at his youth basketball camp on Tuesday. James hasn't said much of anything in weeks, although nearly 200,000 people signed up for his newly launched Twitter feed on Tuesday.

``Hello World,'' is how James' first Tweet began.

The rest of the NBA might have preferred a ``Hello, Unnamed Team That I Will Sign A Contract With'' Tweet, though.

This much is known: Bosh, James and Wade have all talked about playing with each other. How those conversations went was a mystery, one that would figure to be solved soon enough.

``These guys are all talking to each other,'' Knicks president Donnie Walsh said this week, ``so my feeling is they would all want to play with each other.''

That's all anyone has at this point: A feeling.

``Predicting any of that,'' Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said, ``is almost impossible.''

With each day that passes, the anticipation grows. At least now, a summit is in sight.

``It's just a big summer in general for the NBA,'' Quinn said. ``A lot of excitement for different teams and different players going different places.''

Soon, the big picture will become much clearer.

---

AP Basketball Writer Brian Mahoney in New York contributed to this story.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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